Every year I look at the sixteen teams that are in the Stanley Cup playoffs and try to pick the winners.
I use a process of elimination. Single line teams or teams with suspect goaltending can be eliminated rather easily. This usually winnows the two conferences down to two or three teams. Then the fun starts.
So, here is my analysis by conference.
Starting with the Eastern Conference. We can expect that the Penguins, Red Wings and Islanders will be eliminated rather easily in the first round. None of these teams have the goaltending and balanced scoring that are required to make a long playoff run. That has Tampa Bay, the Rangers and Washington advancing to the second round. The Montreal and Ottawa series is interesting. The Canadians should advance, but I wouldn't put anything past Hammond. The Senators may be this years Cinderella team.
In the second round, I expect the Rangers to advance against the Capitals. The Tampa Bay and Montreal match up is a toss up. That would put the Rangers against either the Lightning or the Canadians. I expect the Rangers to advance to the Cup Finals from the East. They have the goaltending and experience to advance.
Now, for the Western Conference. The West is very strong this year. I am picking St. Louis, Nashville, Winnipeg and Calgary to advance out of the first round. The deciding criteria are, once again, goaltending, balanced scoring and experience. I have Nashville and Winnipeg advancing to the Conference Finals and Nashville advancing to the Cup Finals from the West.
That would give us the New York Rangers against the Nashville Predators in the Stanley Cup finals and I expect the Ranger's experience to prevail.
You can laugh at my predictions over the next two months.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Plans
My favorite quote about plans is from Helmut Von Moltke, who was Chief of the German General Staff during Bismark's era and defeated the French during the Franco-Prussian war, which led to the unification of Germany.
No Plan Survives Contact with the Enemy.
My variant on this is that "No Plan Survives Contact with Reality."
This maxim has served me well.
There is another interesting quote from von Moltke's nephew who was also named Helmut von Moltke. The younger served as Chief of the German General Staff at the beginning of the First World War. The Germans had an elaborate plan for going to war. It involved concentrating all of their forces against the French to quickly defeat them and then those forces would turn and deal with the Russians. This was an elaborate plan that involved railway schedules and was very German in its detail.
The Kaiser was convinced that he could keep the French out of the war and Germany would just have Russia to deal with. The Kaiser called von Moltke in for a meeting and told him that Germany did not need to go to war with France. Just turn the army around and we will go to war with Russia, instead. The response from von Moltke was:
Your Majesty, the movements of millions are not improvised.
The German General Staff had a plan and they were going to stick to it. There was no contingency for going to war with Russia and not France.
The Kaiser replied, "Your uncle would have given me a different answer."
von Moltke the younger was always being measured against his uncle.
Anyway, Germany went to war with both France and Russia, just as they planned it. This plan involved crossing through Belgium, which meant that Britain joined the war. The rest is, as they say, history.
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Favorite Albums of 2012
I bought more albums in 2012 than I remember buying lately. I downloaded some and actually purchased discs of several. Here are my favorites that were released in 2012, in no particular order.
Genesis Revisited 2 -- Steve Hackett
This is a double disc set of mostly classic Genesis tunes that Steve has re-recorded. They stay mostly true to the originals. There are several of Steve's solo tunes from that era included.
Clockwork Angels -- Rush
It's hard to argue with Rush. These tunes are more rock and less prog, but I like them.
Sounds that Can't be Made -- Marillion
The band playes a bit more rock-like on this disc than on some recent efforts. H stil mumbles too much. I haven't bothered to look at the insert to see what he is supposed to be singing.
And The Band Played On - Music Played on the Titanic -- I Salonisti
This disc includes songs that were played on the Titanic's ill fated voyage. It's a nice way to hear the soundtrack of the doomed.
Masterworks -- California Guitar Trio
This is a nice collection of classical pieces given the CGT treatment. Very nice. The disc showcases the CGT's superb musicianship. Tony Levin plays upright bass and cello on three tracks.
Sea of Smiles -- Squackett
Steve Hacket and Chris Squire team up for some near prog. The combination is nice and works well. This disc does not rank up there with the best of their work with Genesis or Yes, but it is worth listening to.
Live Blood -- Peter Gabriel
These are versions of some of Peter's songs performed with an orchestra and not his usual band. There are some interesting interpretations of his songs on here.
Forbidden Planet -- Original Motion Picture Soundtrack
This is a re-release of the music from the classic film. I quite like this. I had forgotten how much the soundtrack added to the film.
All the Wars -- The Pineapple Thief
This is another nice collection of prog songs from The Pineapple Thief.
Sceneries -- Sylvan
More nice prog from Sylvan. Each song is presented in three or four parts. They range from mellow to rockin'.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Still More Stupid CCD Tricks
It has been a while since I posted one of these. Here are some mis-coded vital sign observations.
These developers do not understand the physical quantity data type. The bad values are highlighted. They also do not know how to validate a document against the cda schema, because this one fails.
<entry typeCode="DRIV">
<organizer classCode="CLUSTER" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.35"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.1"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.32"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="46680005" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.96" codeSystemName="SNOMED CT" displayName="Vital signs"/>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8302-2" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Height"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital0"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[in_us]" value="63inches" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="3141-9" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Weight"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital4"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[lb_av]" value="154lbs" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8310-5" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Temperature"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital12"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[degF]" value="98" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8480-6" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Blood Pressure Systolic"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital16"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="mm[Hg]" value="right 120" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8462-4" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Blood Pressure Diastolic"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital20"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="mm[Hg]" value="80 and left 110" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
These developers do not understand the physical quantity data type. The bad values are highlighted. They also do not know how to validate a document against the cda schema, because this one fails.
<entry typeCode="DRIV">
<organizer classCode="CLUSTER" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.35"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.1"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.32"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="46680005" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.96" codeSystemName="SNOMED CT" displayName="Vital signs"/>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8302-2" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Height"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital0"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[in_us]" value="63inches" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="3141-9" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Weight"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital4"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[lb_av]" value="154lbs" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8310-5" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Temperature"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital12"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="[degF]" value="98" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8480-6" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Blood Pressure Systolic"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital16"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="mm[Hg]" value="right 120" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
<component>
<observation classCode="OBS" moodCode="EVN">
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.10.20.1.31"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13"/>
<templateId root="1.3.6.1.4.1.19376.1.5.3.1.4.13.2"/>
<templateId root="2.16.840.1.113883.3.88.11.83.14"/>
<id root="36e3e930-7b14-11db-9fe1-0800200c9a66"/>
<code code="8462-4" codeSystem="2.16.840.1.113883.6.1" codeSystemName="LOINC" displayName="Blood Pressure Diastolic"/>
<text>
<reference value="#vital20"/>
</text>
<statusCode code="completed"/>
<effectiveTime value="20120604"/>
<value unit="mm[Hg]" value="80 and left 110" xsi:type="PQ"/>
</observation>
</component>
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Sonny
My dog, Sonny, has cancer. At least it looks that way. The docs still need to perform a test on the growth on the inside of his mouth to confirm the diagnosis. The growth is exerting pressure on his left eye, so it has probably spread beyond his mouth. That concerns me because if the growth is now in the inside of his skull, that would be very serious.
He has had growths on the eyelid of his left eye before. They irritate the eye. When they have been on the outside of the eyelid, I scrape them off with a q-tip. He had surgery on this eye a couple of years ago to remove a growth when I could not remove it by myself.
He had an issue with this eye two months ago and it did get better after treatment. I left him with my folks while I was out of town on business, and the eye got worse during that time.
I had intended to take him to his regular vet this week, but I will have to be out of town. So, we went to an emergency clinic today to have it looked at. They gave me some fluids to apply to his eye and some drugs to try to reduce the swelling and help with the pain.
I adopted Sonny from Brittany Rescue twelve years ago. He is my best buddy.
I still remember looking at his picture on the BR website before I met him. He looked very happy. I thought he was covered in mud, but realized later that it was just brown spots on his front paws.
When I went out to adopt him, he knew that if he passed the audition, he would get the gig and get to leave his foster home. He was out in the back yard by himself, while the rest of the dogs looked on jealously from their kennels. He was so happy to be loved. He was two years old then. He had been adopted by a family as a puppy, but they gave him up because he was too energetic for them. If I recall the story correctly, he had been placed in at least one other home and was returned because he was too rambunctious for them.
They told me that he would be very happy when he was tired. I added "and wet" to that guidance, because Sonny was always extremely happy when he was tired and wet. In those days, we would walk for an hour a day, six or seven days a week. I would take him on walks where he could swim. He loved the water and would quite literally drag me down to the waters edge so that he could jump in.
He is a house dog, but acts like a hunting dog when we are outside. He would point bunnies and birds. I had never seen a dog point before. He looked just like the pointing scenes that you see in paintings.
He loved to go camping and hiking throughout the woods in Michigan's forests. And, of course, whenever we got to a lake or a stream or a river he would dive right in. He knew what it meant when I would start packing the camping gear in to the car and would leap in to the front seat in eager anticipation of the long car ride to the adventures to come.
He was very afraid of loud noises, like fireworks or thunder until he got older and deafer. He would curl up at my feet and shiver with fear during thunderstorms.
Sonny loved popcorn and would sit next to me while I watched a movie or a hockey game. I would put a few kernels in my hand and he would eat quite happily eat them.
I'm trying to focus on remembering the wonderful life that Sonny has had with me. I am worried about losing my buddy.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
ONC S&I Framework F2F Notes
I met with the Data Segmentation for Privacy (DS4P) workgroup. These are my notes from the meeting.
ONC S&I Framework face to face
Wednesday Q4 3-6
Introductions.
IG….what will this look like?
Reference Implementations are planned for this summer. Need
to make a case back at the office for us to participate. Which projects might
be a good fit?
Tiger Team Report=out
Consent management
transactions
CDA Consent Directive DSTU (selected)
Draft IG outline is available on the wiki. http://wiki.siframework.org/Data+Segmentation+Information+Interchange
Information
Interchange
Metadata in context
Use the cda r2 privacy and security vocabularies
How do we explain this so that the user understands it? Is
this a requirement? How would we do this? No.. Focus on the technology…..let
someone else educate patients.
42 CFR Part 2 requires hiding information and not letting
the user know that something is being masked. This is policy. The technology
will support other policies.
System Requirements
Alignment of data segmentation with the ehr functional
model.
How to identify and annotate protected clinical information.
Expectations
Don’t be perfect. This is a draft.
The IG will reference the Use Case document. It will not include the UC doc.
The IG will reference the Use Case document. It will not include the UC doc.
See the presentation for more details.
Thursday Q1
Interesting dynamic between the technical folks and the
policy wonks.
Reviewing the IG.
“Push” is an unsolicited transaction.
DSUB – Document Subscription
0915
Walter Suarez presented on HITSC and Privacy Metadata
(Pcast)
Tagged data elements (atoms)
HIT Standards Committee Meta data tiger team
Focused on
- · Patient Identification
- · Provenance
- · Privacy
PCAST called for metadata on every element. HITSC narrowed
the focus.
Recommendations:
·
- Policy Pointer (url to privacy policy that governs the tde)
- · Content medadata
- o Datatype (category from a clinical perspective)
- o Sensitivity (special handling instructions)
Three components necessary to enforce privacy:
·
Policy
·
Metadata about the content
·
Metadata about the requestor.
External Policy Registry, but no implementation specifics
“Policy” is both regulatory (42cfr) and specific (patient
does not want data shared with dr. smith)
EU regulation contains “a right to be forgotten” in it. Did
HITSC consider this? Issues with lawsuits (how do I defend a decision based on
data that no longer exists). Record retention requirements (term of employment
plus 30 years).
Proposing to add sensitivity codes
- · Substance abuse (eth)
- · Reproductive health
- · Sexually transmitted disease (HIV)
- · Mental Health (PSY)
- · Genetic Information
- · Violence (SDV)
- · Other
ANPRM comments.
Thursday Q2 -- 1055
Disclosed metadata is recursive? No. Create as much metadata as possible.
Use a rules engine to apply the rules on the clinical data
prior to sending the document out.
Thursday Q3 – 1330
Focus on the push transaction and the metadata.
How do you convey multiple policies….repeating structure? There
may be more than one policy applied to this document. This metadata will have
to be added to XD*
Then we go through the xs* transactions…..very similar.
Thursday Q4 1600
Bundle XDS and XUA to retrieve the document and authenticate
who the request is from.
Need to
understand the consent directive ig. Go back and read this on the plane.
Where does segmentation happen?
Realized that CDA does not support confidentiality at the
entry level (in R2). Will limit segmentation to the document and section level.
Plus, there is no reliable way to remove content from the narrative.
Friday Q1 -- 0800
Need to write up a strawman for Donna, Joe and Peter to see
if they are interested in being a pilot. Propose Tulsa and Detroit Beacon as
potential pilots. Need to engage Mirth and Apelon. Possibly IHIE? Not really.
They do not support CDA.
We could do the direct as transport protocol. Generate CCD
from Mirth and send it on.
There are pilots of CCDA in the ToC initiative. Need to look
at who is involved.
How to pilot? XD* and the exchange of CCDA should already
exist. We just need to test the segmentation part of the project.
Need pilots that have different architectures and transport
protocols, as it is very unlikely that any one pilot will have all of them.
We already have the use cases. No need to create new ones. Need
to pick a pilot that meets some use cases, not all of them.
SAMHA Pilot.
VA pilot. Using a standard CDA. Working with Apelon. Using
standard terminology from Apelon and Value sets to look at the documents. Access
control system (ACS). Trying to adapt CCDA to behavioral health. Rules engine
to determine what to suppress. GUI for
42CFR Part 2 and Title 38 Section 7332 consent form (one and only one).
Epic.
Epic has a network of their systems. Care Everywhere. No
central repository. Each Epic system is a trusted entity with the others.
56million patients.
Organizations decide how to handle consent. Either opt-in or
opt-out. No re-disclosure. Patient has to issue consent to each organization.
Withheld information can be in several categories:
Organizations can configure sharing. Some departments can be withheld. Some
types of notes can be withheld. Physician flags the note as “sensitive.”
Patients who opt out.
Friday Q2 – 1030
Mitre and hData
What is hData
Organizing data. Metadata. Pub.sub model for data exchange.
They have their own transport and network api.
hData and green cda are friends. Simpler xml.
Record – section – section document
How does this fit with the use cases and the technologies
that we have discussed?
http put, get, etc.
Transforms to and from cda, etc.
Security concerns with this approach. Using xaml with http
can be done, but it is cumbersome.
Good applications in mobile health, rendering to a mobile
phone.
Data Segmentation for Privacy is similar to Data
Segmentation for Security (Intelligence Community). Tagging documents. Similarities between security classification
and phi.
Defining Success
Objectives for the pilot.
·
Open Dialogue
o
Standards and scope
o
Requirements – functional and scope
o
Landscape survey
·
Defining expectations for the pilot
·
Success metrics
Are the success criteria complying with the law, or
improving patient care?
The default position since the fifth century bc is that the
provider discloses only the information that the patient wishes.
The ONC has an eConsent project that connects with patients
for feedback. Pilot in western New York.
There is a movement to standardizing consent language. See
Ohio.
What are consumer expectations? That we comply with the law!
Pick an environment that is already exchanging and add the
segmentation capabilities to that. Trusted exchange!
We will need specific patient buy-in before proceeding.
Test cases only. No legal implications to failure! Whew!!
Friday Q3 – Wrap-up
I love it when the policy wonks work with the geeks.
Two priorities for the next year. Acceleration of mu and
S&I
Thursday, December 29, 2011
2011 Year End Summary
It has been an eventful year.
In January I began working with the ONC S&I Framework on the Consolidated CDA Guide. I was a co-chair of the Documentation workgroup. The Consolidated Guide was published in December 2011 and I am listed as a co-editor. This IG should be one of the base standards for Meaningful Use Stage 2, and I am honored to have contributed, however slightly, to this effort.
I attended the two ONC S&I Framework Face to Face Meetings in Washington, DC.
I changed jobs in May. I am now a Healthcare Solutions Architect for Covisint.
I worked on a state-wide HIE project, HealthShare Montana. I also work on a Michigan based ACO. I have worked on some internal projects, and will be leading an effort to deploy a terminology service to translate local terminology to standard codes before we store this data. I am also leading an effort to deploy messaging implementation guides and computable artifacts to simplify our process for on-boarding new trading partners.
I am company "standards guy", so I participate in the ONC S&I Framework, HL7, IHE and a few other initiatives.
I decided to become more sociable this year, so I joined twitter (@PeterNGilbert) and facebook.
I was recognized as one of the top contributers to the HIT Social Media conversation (#HITsm).
http://www.hl7standards.com/blog/2011/12/20/2011-top-hitsm-contributors/
Looking forward to 2012:
We expect to do work for an existing state-wide HIE in 2012 helping them to on-board their backlog of hospitals and provider offices. This project, alone, should keep me very busy in 2012.
I will be attending the HL7 Working Group Meeting in San Antonio in January. I will see if I can get to the two other WGMs.
I don't know if I will be going to HIMSS in February.
2011 was a good year, and 2012 should be even better.
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